Marlins vs. Cubs, 06/22/17 – Preview & Prediction

Line: Chicago -150/Miami +140

Total: 8.5

The Miami Marlins will host the Chicago Cubs as the clubs kick off a four game series Thursday evening from Marlins Park. The Cubs will send 31-year old right-hander Jake Arrieta to the mound, and 29-year old left-hander Jeff Locke will toe the rubber for the hometown Marlins. The Cubs took two of three over the Marlins at Wrigley Field earlier this month.

Arrieta Only Lasts 4.2 Innings in Road Loss to Pirates

Jake Arrieta will take the mound for the 15th time of the year, aiming for win number seven. Arrieta took the loss in his previous start after conceding three runs (two earned) in 4.2 innings pitched to the Pirates. The veteran right-hander is having a bit of a disappointing season, posting a 4.64 ERA and a 1.33 WHIP to go along with a 6-5 record in 77.2 innings logged. He took on the Marlins earlier this month and held them to just two runs in six innings ,and has now limited them to only three runs in 19 career innings pitched. Giancarlo Stanton is 2 for 8 with one homer against Arrieta, while Christian Yelich is 1 for 4, and Marcell Ozuna is 0 for 7. Anthony Rizzo is swinging a red hot bat, belting four home runs along with 10 RBI’s over his last seven games, and is now hitting .386 this month. The 27-year old first baseman is having a strong season, hitting .268 with 17 home runs and 47 RBI’s. Rizzo has enjoyed success against the Marlins this season, driving in six runs in 12 at bats.

The Cubs inconsistent offense is currently averaging 4.71 runs per game, ranking them 17th in the Majors, and are hitting .239 as a team. The Chicago pitching has been solid, sporting a 4.06 team ERA, good for eighth in the Major Leagues.

Locke Seeking First Win of Season

Jeff Locke will get the call for the fifth time of the season, hunting for his first victory. Locke only lasted four innings to the Braves in his previous start after allowing a total of three runs. The veteran left-hander has now allowed a total of 11 runs (10 earned) in 19.2 innings this season, giving him a 4.58 ERA and a 1.32 WHIP to go with an 0-2 record. He faced the Cubs in his second start of the season and conceded four runs (three earned) in 4.2 innings, and now owns a 1-5 record with a terrible 5.98 ERA in 61.2 career innings against Chicago. Dee Gordon has been productive as of late, collecting 12 hits along with five RBI’s over his last seven games. The speedy second baseman is having a solid season, sporting a .292 average with 17 RBI’s, and ranks third in the Majors with 25 stolen bases. Gordon is 2 for 12 with one RBI against the Cubs this season.

The Marlins are currently averaging 4.77 runs per game, ranking them 14th in the Majors, and feature a strong .269 team batting average. The Miami pitching has been subpar, recording a 4.56 team ERA, positioning them 19th overall.

Trends:

The Chicago Cubs are:

5-1 in their last 6 games against the Marlins.

7-0 in Arrieta’s last 7 Thursday starts.

12-4 in Arrieta’s last 16 starts against the NL East.

The Miami Marlins are:

0-4 in Locke’s last 4 starts.

6-14 in their last 20 games against a team with a winning record.

1-5 in their last 6 Thursday games.

I am siding with Cubs in this contest. Locke has struggled big time against the Cubs in his career, posting a 1-5 record with an abysmal 5.98 ERA in 61.2 innings, plus the Cubs already beat Locke earlier this month, so I expect them to have a big night at the plate. Furthermore, Arrieta has only conceded three runs in 19 career innings against Miami, and he held them to only two runs in six innings in a 10-2 Cubs victory earlier this month.

Pick: Chicago Cubs -150*