Indians vs. Orioles, 06/22/17 – Prediction

Moneylines: Indians -120, Orioles +110; total: 10

There are two series early this week the feature playoff teams. One of those is in the American League and it closes out Thursday night as reigning AL Central champion Cleveland plays its final game of the year in Baltimore, a wild-card team last year.

Indians Starting To Play To Expectations

Cleveland was widely expected to repeat in the Central Division this year and be a top contender to win another pennant. The Tribe weren’t playing like it much of the season but they are now as the offense has taken off and the pitching has mostly stabilized. Edwin Encarnacion was the big-money free-agent addition. In mid-May, he was hitting below the Mendoza Line and with five homers but he has been red-hot since. So has Jose Ramirez. In Monday’s 12-0 series-opening win Ramirez doubled in a franchise-record seventh straight game (ended Tuesday). He had two doubles and a triple Monday and became the first player in the modern era (since 1900) to accumulate 14 or greater extra-base hits across a seven-game span. He was hitting below .280 a little over a week ago and is now well above .300. The Tribe are without former All-Star outfielder Michael Brantley. He came off the paternity list Monday but was placed on the 10-day DL with a sprained right ankle. Brantley has played in 54 games this season and was batting .296 with 13 doubles, five home runs and 28 RBIs. He played in just 11 games in 2016.

It’s Mike Clevinger for the Tribe. Clevinger (2-3, 3.89) was called up from Triple-A for Saturday’s doubleheader in Minnesota. He started Game 2 and allowed one run and two hits in four innings and then was sent back down. Clevinger threw 44 of 71 pitches for strikes in a game that was broken up by a lengthy delay, which denied him a chance at the win. The right-hander continues to miss bats at a strong rate with a 10.2 K/9 mark, but his 4.4 BB/9 rate has limited his ability to pitch deep into games.  Normally players must spend at least 10 days in the minors after being sent down, but because Clevinger was the designated 26th player on the roster Saturday, he can be brought back up again without waiting.

Orioles Missing Key Guys

Baltimore was in first place not too long ago but now the terrible pitching staff, which ranks last in the majors in ERA, and injuries are catching up. The latest guy to go on the DL was shortstop J.J. Hardy earlier this week with a fractured wrist. The three-time Gold Glover left Sunday’s contest against the St. Louis Cardinals after being struck in the right wrist by a 94 mph fastball from starter Lance Lynn in the bottom of the fourth inning. Hardy will miss 4-6 weeks. He remains a solid defensive player but was hitting just .211 this year with three homers and 21 RBIs. Hardy joins baseman Chris Davis (oblique) and utility man Ryan Flaherty (shoulder), as well as relievers Zach Britton (forearm) and Darren O’Day (shoulder) on the DL. Britton, the All-Star closer, has started a rehab assignment and could be back in early July.

It’s lefty Wade Miley (3-4, 4.29) on the bump. Miley won after giving up six runs (five earned) on six hits (two homers) and four walks with eight strikeouts over 5 2/3 innings Saturday against the Cardinals. Miley certainly wasn’t sharp, but Baltimore scored nine runs through the first two innings of the game. The southpaw hadn’t allowed two homers or issued four walks in a start since May 16, though he also hadn’t struck out eight since April 25. He’s allowed 15 earned runs over his last three starts (10 2/3 innings). “It’s been a grind, no doubt,” Miley said. “Baseball’s going to throw that at you at some point every year. It’s just kind of how we come through it, and hopefully we’re moving in the right direction.”

Trends

Cleveland:

Indians are 0-5 in Clevinger’s last 5 starts with 4 days of rest.

Baltimore:

Orioles are 4-1 in Miley’s last 5 home starts.

Not exactly the best pitching matchup of Thursday. The Orioles allowed at least five runs in 17 consecutive games as of Wednesday. That’s the longest run in AL history and just three short of the dubious major league record of 20 set by the 1924 Philadelphia Phillies. Miley has been a solid 2-2 with a 3.09 ERA at home this year. Last year, he was 1-1 with a 2.53 ERA against Cleveland in two starts. Clevinger allowed four runs in four innings in 2016 in his lone career start vs. Cleveland. The Birds are struggling but still have one of the best home records in baseball.

The Pick: Orioles +110