PREDICTION MLB MONDAY 10-04-2017

-140 PIT

The set-up: The Cincinnati Reds have opened 4-2 with the team's pitching staff having already thrown three shutouts, after recording only eight all of last season. The Cincinnati lineup has also homered in every game this season and collected nine hits or more three times in six contests. Coming off seasons of 64 and 68 wins, the Reds' early start is encouraging. As for Pittsburgh, last year's 78-83 record ended a run of three straight wild card appearances and the Pirates have to be happy that they made it a three-game sweep at home over the Braves this past weekend, after opening 0-2 in Fenway against the Red Sox (one game was rained out).

The pitching matchup: Brandon Finnegan (1-0, 0.00 ERA) takes the mound for the Reds up against the Pirates' Tyler Glasnow (2016: 0-2 & 4.24 in 2016), as the two Central rivals open a three-game series in Pittsburgh. Finnegan had a strong 2017 debut on Wednesday against Philadelphia, allowing only one hit over seven scoreless innings with one walk and nine strikeouts. He is 2-1 with a 2.03 ERA in three career starts against teh Pirates and in two starts at PNC Park,  Finnegan allowed one run on eight hits in 11 innings. Finnegan made 31 starts last season, going 10-11 overall with a 3.98 ERA (team was 12-19 and minus-$285 in all starts) but pitched well late in the season, posting a 2.23 ERA over his last 11 starts (he was 5-3 and the team 6-5). Tyler Glasnow takes the mound for Pittsburgh in his 2017 debut. He has been named the International League’s top pitching prospect twice in the past three years, but experienced a sometimes-shaky rookie season in which he made seven appearances (team was 1-3 in his four starts). He pitched for the U.S. team in the World Baseball Classic and is one of the top prospects in the majors. Despite a poor spring (allowed 12 earned runs in 17 1/3 innings), he earned the final spot in Pittsburgh’s rotation.

The pick: The Reds are off to a good start but let's not forget this team hasn't reached 70 wins in either of its last two seasons. Cincy was just 30-51 on the road in 2016 and the Pirates are coming off a three-game home sweep of the Braves, while scoring 17 runs. The Reds' pitching staff gets a real test in this one fails. Take the Pirates.