Baseball and betting have been like oil and water since the 1919 World Series. But unbeknownst to MLB, they’ve adopted the most raw and popular format for sports bettors when they switched their annual All-Star Game Home Run Derby over to a tournament-style bracket last year.
I mean, who doesn’t love a good bracket? An estimated 70 million American sports fans filled out a March Madness bracket during the NCAA tournament this year. And guess what? Those friendly bracket pools are sports gambling at its most primal.
And, as we know from that first weekend of the NCAA, anything can happen in a single elimination tournament. That means a No. 8 seed - like Dodgers star rookie Corey Seager - could knock off a top-seeded slugger like Mark Trumbo in the opening round. There really is no rhyme or reason to the home run derby (not a game situation, no runners on base, no count, and BP pitches. How the hell do you analyze that with regular season stats?), so upsets are bound to happen. That means value in taking a flyer on a long shot.
So whether you’re filling out your own MLB Home Run Derby bracket amongst buddies or actually hitting the sportsbook – either online or in Nevada – to place a wager on a single player to win Monday’s derby, you can thank Major League Baseball for being so betting friendly during the Mid-Summer Classic.
Here’s a look at this year Home Run Derby contenders and their odds to win:
Mark Trumbo, Baltimore Orioles (4/1)
The American League has been the dominant force in recent derbies, winning seven of the last nine. Trumbo leads the big leagues in dingers with 28 heading into the break. He took part in the 2012 Home Run Derby, launching a total of 13 balls over the fence to finish third. He’s matched up with Corey Seager (18 home runs) of the Dodgers in the first round.
Todd Frazier, Chicago White Sox (5/1)
Frazier has been a derby star the past two seasons, finishing second to Yoenis Céspedes in 2014 and winning last year’s event by topping Joc Pederson in the finals. Frazier was in a bit of a dry spell in the long ball department before slugging a pair over the weekend against the Atlanta Braves. Only two men have won back-to-back derby titles: Céspedes and Ken Griffey Jr. He battles bats with Carlos Gonzalez of the Rockies in Round 1.
Adam Duvall, Cincinnati Reds (6/1)
Duvall enters the break with 23 home runs on the season, which is ties for second in the National League. He hit half of his total home runs in May and put up nine in June, but has only one home run thus far in July. Before Frazier and Céspedes won the past three derbies (both RH), left-handed hitters dominated the longball competition with five straight lefties taking the derby title between 2008 and 2012. He’s up against Wil Myers and the home town San Diego crowd in Round 1.
Robinson Cano, Seattle Mariners (15/2)
The way the derby has plagued power hitters in recent years, allegedly throwing a hitch in a batter's giddy-up following a display in the competition, Mariners fans may be lobbying for Cano to sit this one out. The M’s second baseman, who won the 2011 derby as a Yankee, is finally playing like everyone in Seattle hoped for when he signed with the team for a "bajillion dollars" in 2014, putting up 21 home runs and 58 RBIs. He’s got name-brand value and a derby title, but also just two home runs since June 18. Cano faces Marlins slugger Giancarlo Stanton in the opening round.
Giancarlo Stanton, Miami Marlins (4/1)
When it comes to pure power at the plate, Stanton is unmatched. But this isn’t a longest drive competition. He looked like he was on pace for a big day in last year’s derby, earning a bye with six big flys in the opening round, but then laid a goose egg in Round 3. He has 20 jacks heading into Monday's competition and is swinging the hottest bat in the field, with back-to-back two home run games against the Mets this week. Stanton is in a big-name Round 1 bout with Cano.
Wil Myers, San Diego Padres (6/1)
Myers gets the hometown nod in San Diego, and deservedly so. He’s got 19 homers heading into the break and will have a home-field advantage in Petco Park, where he’s hit 13 of his total taters. Frazier, then a member of the Reds, won in front of the home faithful in Cincinnati last season. Should Myers get past Duvall, he could face Frazier or Gonzalez in Round 2.
Carlos Gonzalez, Colorado Rockies (15/2)
You can take the bat out of the Rockies, but can you take the Rockies out of the bat? We’ll find out just how much Coors Field has been boosting CarGo’s numbers this season, knocking 14 of his total 19 home runs over the fence inside the hitter-friendly park this season. Away from the thin mile-high air, Gonzalez has only five home runs and is hitting .279 BA (vs. 360 at home). Despite serving as the major’s biggest home run factory over the years, Colorado has yet to boast a derby champion (0-11).
Corey Seager, Los Angeles Dodgers (13/2)
Seager brings up the rear in the bracket format, seeded No. 8 among these big swingers. The Dodgers rookie shortstop has 18 homers to his name in 2016 and has only two home runs since June 24. He’s been to Petco six times this year, failing to pick up a home run in any of those games. Seager may be holding the bat a little tight on the big stage among these household names. “I’m in trouble,” he told reporters when the field was announced. “I’m in a lot of trouble.”
I mean, who doesn’t love a good bracket? An estimated 70 million American sports fans filled out a March Madness bracket during the NCAA tournament this year. And guess what? Those friendly bracket pools are sports gambling at its most primal.
And, as we know from that first weekend of the NCAA, anything can happen in a single elimination tournament. That means a No. 8 seed - like Dodgers star rookie Corey Seager - could knock off a top-seeded slugger like Mark Trumbo in the opening round. There really is no rhyme or reason to the home run derby (not a game situation, no runners on base, no count, and BP pitches. How the hell do you analyze that with regular season stats?), so upsets are bound to happen. That means value in taking a flyer on a long shot.
So whether you’re filling out your own MLB Home Run Derby bracket amongst buddies or actually hitting the sportsbook – either online or in Nevada – to place a wager on a single player to win Monday’s derby, you can thank Major League Baseball for being so betting friendly during the Mid-Summer Classic.
Here’s a look at this year Home Run Derby contenders and their odds to win:
Mark Trumbo, Baltimore Orioles (4/1)
The American League has been the dominant force in recent derbies, winning seven of the last nine. Trumbo leads the big leagues in dingers with 28 heading into the break. He took part in the 2012 Home Run Derby, launching a total of 13 balls over the fence to finish third. He’s matched up with Corey Seager (18 home runs) of the Dodgers in the first round.
Todd Frazier, Chicago White Sox (5/1)
Frazier has been a derby star the past two seasons, finishing second to Yoenis Céspedes in 2014 and winning last year’s event by topping Joc Pederson in the finals. Frazier was in a bit of a dry spell in the long ball department before slugging a pair over the weekend against the Atlanta Braves. Only two men have won back-to-back derby titles: Céspedes and Ken Griffey Jr. He battles bats with Carlos Gonzalez of the Rockies in Round 1.
Adam Duvall, Cincinnati Reds (6/1)
Duvall enters the break with 23 home runs on the season, which is ties for second in the National League. He hit half of his total home runs in May and put up nine in June, but has only one home run thus far in July. Before Frazier and Céspedes won the past three derbies (both RH), left-handed hitters dominated the longball competition with five straight lefties taking the derby title between 2008 and 2012. He’s up against Wil Myers and the home town San Diego crowd in Round 1.
Robinson Cano, Seattle Mariners (15/2)
The way the derby has plagued power hitters in recent years, allegedly throwing a hitch in a batter's giddy-up following a display in the competition, Mariners fans may be lobbying for Cano to sit this one out. The M’s second baseman, who won the 2011 derby as a Yankee, is finally playing like everyone in Seattle hoped for when he signed with the team for a "bajillion dollars" in 2014, putting up 21 home runs and 58 RBIs. He’s got name-brand value and a derby title, but also just two home runs since June 18. Cano faces Marlins slugger Giancarlo Stanton in the opening round.
Giancarlo Stanton, Miami Marlins (4/1)
When it comes to pure power at the plate, Stanton is unmatched. But this isn’t a longest drive competition. He looked like he was on pace for a big day in last year’s derby, earning a bye with six big flys in the opening round, but then laid a goose egg in Round 3. He has 20 jacks heading into Monday's competition and is swinging the hottest bat in the field, with back-to-back two home run games against the Mets this week. Stanton is in a big-name Round 1 bout with Cano.
Wil Myers, San Diego Padres (6/1)
Myers gets the hometown nod in San Diego, and deservedly so. He’s got 19 homers heading into the break and will have a home-field advantage in Petco Park, where he’s hit 13 of his total taters. Frazier, then a member of the Reds, won in front of the home faithful in Cincinnati last season. Should Myers get past Duvall, he could face Frazier or Gonzalez in Round 2.
Carlos Gonzalez, Colorado Rockies (15/2)
You can take the bat out of the Rockies, but can you take the Rockies out of the bat? We’ll find out just how much Coors Field has been boosting CarGo’s numbers this season, knocking 14 of his total 19 home runs over the fence inside the hitter-friendly park this season. Away from the thin mile-high air, Gonzalez has only five home runs and is hitting .279 BA (vs. 360 at home). Despite serving as the major’s biggest home run factory over the years, Colorado has yet to boast a derby champion (0-11).
Corey Seager, Los Angeles Dodgers (13/2)
Seager brings up the rear in the bracket format, seeded No. 8 among these big swingers. The Dodgers rookie shortstop has 18 homers to his name in 2016 and has only two home runs since June 24. He’s been to Petco six times this year, failing to pick up a home run in any of those games. Seager may be holding the bat a little tight on the big stage among these household names. “I’m in trouble,” he told reporters when the field was announced. “I’m in a lot of trouble.”
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